The number of global broadband users reached over 612.6 million at the end of March 2012, indicating an increase of about 2.7 per cent over December 2011 and 11.5 per cent as compared to March 2011. Asian markets have been heading this growth as markets in Europe and North America saturate. According to IHS iSuppli, broadband subscribers in the emerging regions of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East and Africa are projected to rise by 17.4 per cent, growing to 375 million from 320 million in 2011. In comparison, subscribers in the developed markets of North America and Europe will expand by only 6.8 per cent, increasing to 298 million, as compared to279 million in 2011.

Of the two dominant mediums of broadband connectivity – mobile and fixed – the former surpassed the latter in 2011. In countries such as Colombia, Kenya, South Africa and Vietnam, mobile broadband is already the main platform for access, having surpassed fixed broadband by more than 10 times in the two African countries and almost three times in Vietnam.

According to a new report from the World Bank and infoDev, its technology entrepreneurship and innovation programme, mobile broadband has a greater positive impact on economic growth than fixed broadband, particularly in developing countries. The World Bank had earlier stated that with an increase of 10 per cent in broadband penetration in developing countries, the GDP growth rate increases by 1.2 per cent. Mobile subscriptions have increased from 1 billion in 2000 to more than 6 billion worldwide, implying that  around 75 per cent of the world’s population now has access to mobile phones. This provides a much bigger platform, in contrast to fixed networks, to increase world GDP.

Mobile broadband

According to the latest data released by the International Telecommunication Union, global mobile broadband subscriptions  exceeded 1 billion by end-2011, registering a 40 per cent annual growth. The global mobile broadband industry recorded total revenues of $228.6 billion in 2011, representing a compound annual growth rate  of 37.6 per cent between 2007 and 2011.

Among the various technologies, long term evolution-time division duplex (LTE-TDD) is fast gaining traction and is expected to constitute a significant part of LTE subscriber growth in the coming years. According to a study by Ovum, 25 per cent of all LTE connections will include LTE-TDD by 2016.

A recent LTE report by the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) confirms that commercial networks quadrupled in the past one year and so far 80 LTE operators have launched commercial services. Till June 2012, 33 networks have been launched including seven commercial LTE-TDD systems in Brazil, India, Japan, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Sweden.

According to the GSA report, 327 operators in 99 countries have committed to deploy commercial LTE networks or are engaged in trials, technology testing or studies. Over 265 firm commercial LTE networks are at the deployment stage, have been commercially launched, or are planned in 86 countries. Another 60 operators in 13 additional countries are engaged in LTE technology trials, tests or studies.

ABI Research has projected that global LTE-TDD subscription numbers will grow from 1 million at the end of 2012 to 139 million by 2017. In fact, China, India and Japan are forecasted to collectively account for 92 million LTE-TDD subscriptions.

As the technology gains traction, the LTE ecosystem is also fast evolving. The number of LTE user devices announced in the market has more than tripled over the past year and 67 manufacturers have so far announced 417 LTE-enabled user devices. This includes 83 LTE smartphones and 31 tablets. Out of the 417 devices, 68 can operate in TDD mode.

Meanwhile, as LTE has been adopted by many commercial operators around the world, Wi-Max has suffered significantly in the past two years. The US, which is the biggest market for Wi-Max, is already moving towards LTE. All key operators including AT&T, Verizon and Sprint have announced their plans for LTE networks. The largest Wi-Max operator, Sprint Nextel, which is also the pioneer of this technology, has unveiled its future plan for LTE. It intends to finish building its LTE network by end-2013 and has started launching devices supporting this technology.

Outside the US, Wi-Max saw some success in Russia, Mongolia and Pakistan, but was largely rejected in Western Europe. Since many operators of Wi-Max networks have shifted to LTE, the global demand for Wi-Max chips in 2012 is expected to decrease as compared to 2011.

As far as performance is concerned, the version of Wi-Max that Sprint uses is supposed to deliver download speeds of 30-40 Mbps, while LTE can deliver up to 100 Mbps. Another key performance advantage of LTE is its better integration with other cellular technologies like GSM, HSPA and HSPA+, allowing smoother transitions between 3G and 4G.

Overall, mobile broadband (including all the technologies) represents the fastest-growing revenue stream for mobile operators. According to Infonetics Research, the value of the mobile services market is expected to expand globally to $976 billion by 2016 with much of the growth stemming from mobile broadband services. The research also claims that mobile broadband subscribers will grow from 15 per cent in 2011 to nearly 40 per cent in 2016.

Fixed broadband

Despite a surge in mobile broadband adoption, fixed broadband technologies are also gaining momentum, mainly due its advantage of providing high-speed and better quality of service over its wireless counterparts. According to ABI Research, the number of fixed broadband subscribers reached 586.7 million as of March 2012, generating service revenue of $47.7 billion from January to March 2012. The research firm estimates the global fixed broadband revenue to generate $191 billion in 2012.

Among the various wireline broadband technologies used by internet service providers to deliver broadband, like DSL, fibre (FTTH, FTTC, vDSL etc.), cable and others (unlicensed Wi-Max, Wi-Fi, leased lines and Ethernet, etc.), fibre is  witnessing the maximum growth.

The Asia-Pacific region has the highest fibre broadband penetration in the world, followed by North America. Asia Pacific accounts for the majority of the worldwide fibre broadband subscribers and is led by the markets of China, Japan and South Korea. The European broadband market has seen a considerable evolution during the past two years, characterised by the migration to higher-data services and from copper-based networks to fibre.

Asia Pacific is reported to have added 7 million subscribers in the quarter ended March 2012, most notable being the net subscriber additions in China. China is aggressively upgrading its optic fibre cable (OFC)-based broadband infrastructure. The Chinese government has allocated 80 per cent of its $303 billion infrastructure investment for broadband development. Of the operators, China Telecom plans to get 100 million OFC-based broadband subscribers by end-2015.

Going forward, applications such as internet television protocol (IPTV) and online video that require higher bandwidth will lead to the replacement of DSL broadband by OFC. According to Pont Topic, IPTV subscriptions increased to 66 million as of March 2012. China is leading the way, driven by the increased availability of broadband. In mature markets, the trend towards using broadband as a substitute to traditional television is picking up steam.