The long term evolution (LTE) technology has witnessed encouraging uptake worldwide since the first commercial launch of the 4G network in Sweden in 2009 by TeliaSonera. According to GSMA Intelligence, there were 352 live 4G operators globally as of end-January 2015. The number of LTE/4G subscriptions has also grown rapidly, increasing from 200 million as of end-2013 to nearly half a billion (490 million) as of end-2014. About 7 per cent of all global mobile connections were running on 4G networks as of end-2014, up from 3 per cent in the previous year.

The rapid growth in 4G network deployments and connections, along with the expanding 4G coverage, has made the move to LTE one of the fastest network technology migrations in the history of the telecom industry. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that global 4G connections will grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 30 per cent from 2014 to 2020.

tele.net takes a look at the region-wise deployment of LTE/4G networks…

North America

According to Informa Telecoms and Media, North America continues to lead the world in LTE network connections, accounting for 39 per cent of the 373 million LTE connections worldwide as of September 2014. LTE subscriptions in North America grew from 79 million in September 2013 to 145 million in September 2014, an addition of about 66 million subscribers over 12 months. At present, the US and Canada collectively support 66 commercial LTE networks. Operators such as AT&T, MetroPCS, Sprint and Verizon have taken the lead in deploying LTE networks in the US, while deployments in Canada are being led by operators such as Bell Mobility and Rogers Wireless.

LTE is covering an increasingly large share of the mobile broadband market in North America, while high speed packet access (HSPA) and HSPA+ now account for 27 per cent of North American mobile broadband connections. The mobile network market share for HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE cumulatively stood at 63 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2014. By 2020, about 80 per cent of mobile subscriptions in the region are expected to be LTE. According to various industry reports, growth in the LTE subscriber base will be driven mainly by the increasing number of connected devices per user, rather than the addition of individual new users. In 2014, the average number of connected devices per household in the US stood at 5.2. Going forward, this number is expected to increase significantly, thereby driving further growth in LTE subscriptions.

Latin America

LTE currently accounts for only 1 per cent of the total mobile connections in Latin America, which is likely to increase over the next few years as 4G deployments accelerate across the region. GSMA, the global telecom body, expects 4G to account for more than one in four mobile connections by 2020. The total mobile connections in Latin America are projected to grow from 709 million as of end-2014 to 889 million by 2020, with 4G accounting for 28 per cent of the 245 million connections by 2020.

Increasing smartphone adoption and demand for high speed broadband are the key growth drivers of 4G networks in the region. Capital expenditure by mobile operators in Latin America is increasing significantly and is expected to reach a cumulative $193 billion in the seven-year period from 2014 to 2020. Latin American operators invested about $8 billion in spectrum licences during 2012-15, primarily to support 4G deployments. With growing investments in 4G networks, 76 per cent of the Latin American population is expected to be covered by 4G by 2020, up from 35 per cent as of end-2014.

Europe

Europe is currently home to the maximum number of individual 4G operators (108). At present, 4G networks cover the majority of the European population in countries including the UK, Sweden, Denmark, the Nordic region, Benelux, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland. In the remaining European countries, operators are rapidly building up 4G coverage. With smartphone adoption reaching a critical mass in Europe, 4G subscriptions in the region are expected to increase from 3 per cent in 2013 to 10 per cent in early 2015, and are likely to overtake the number of 3G connections by the second quarter of 2015. At present, the UK’s EE is Europe’s largest 4G operator with a subscriber base of 7.7 million during the fourth quarter of 2014.

However, the roll-out of 4G networks is expected to be impacted by stringent regulatory policies despite encouraging 4G uptake in the majority of the European markets. The GSMA’s latest report, “Arbitrary Radio Frequency Exposure Limits: Impact on 4G Networks Deployment”, highlights that the extremely restrictive electromagnetic field (EMF) exposure limits set by the government without any credible scientific basis is likely to impact the deployment of LTE networks in markets such as Brussels, Italy, Lithuania, Paris and Poland.

Asia-Pacific

The region is witnessing rapid migration to both 3G and 4G. About 47 per cent of the world’s 4G connections are based in the Asia-Pacific region, concentrated in markets such as South Korea, Japan and China. South Korea is the world’s most advanced 4G market and is the only developed market to have reached 100 per cent population coverage. At the end of 2014, more than half of the total mobile connections in the region were 4G. According to GSMA Intelligence, China is the fastest growing 4G market in the region. China Mobile became the first operator to launch 4G services in the country, in December 2013, with a high level of initial coverage, which included the major cities on China’s east coast, potentially covering as many as 500 million people. The country is expected to have 300 million 4G connections by end-2015, overtaking the US to become the world’s largest 4G market. With large-scale 4G roll-outs by both China Mobile and China Telecom, the country is expected to have the fastest initial migration rates after South Korea. At the end of 2014, China Mobile had 90 million 4G connections, establishing it as the world’s largest 4G operator. By 2020, 4G connections will account for over half the mobile subscriptions in the country, well ahead of both the regional as well as global average, which stands at 28 per cent.

The Middle East and Africa

With a higher disposable income and smartphone penetration of 60-70 per cent, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries support one LTE network each. So far, there have been a total of 17 LTE deployments across the region. Vodafone Qatar has been the latest entrant in the 4G market in the Middle East with the launch of its LTE services in June 2014. With the rapid roll-out of LTE networks, GCC countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have a significant number of 4G users. At the end of the second quarter of 2014, the Middle East had around 3 million LTE subscribers, which are expected to reach 30 million by 2018. In comparison, 4G adoption is low in the non-GCC region, which includes war-torn countries such as Iraq and Syria, and the heavily sanctioned Iran.

In Africa, 26 operators have commercially launched LTE in only 12 of the 54 countries. The majority of mobile subscriptions continue to be 2G and 3G, with LTE representing less than 1 per cent of mobile subscriptions in the region. The key factors impacting the uptake of 4G in Africa are the lack of spectrum availability and the high cost of devices. Nevertheless, countries such as Tanzania and Uganda are witnessing increasing 4G uptake.

Future outlook

According to various industry reports, 4G adoption is closely correlated to its coverage, which in turn is dependent on the timing, type and amount of spectrum assigned to operators for 4G services. Globally, operators have been offering 4G services using digital dividend bands (700/800 MHz), refarmed spectrum in existing 2G/3G bands (1800 MHz) or international mobile telecommunications – extension bands (2500/2600 MHz). At present, three- quarters of 4G deployments are running on one of these three bands. Globally, countries including the US, South Korea, Japan and Australia have benefited from supportive regulatory frameworks, which paved the way for the assignment of spectrum for 4G services at an early stage, whereas in Europe, where LTE adoption stood at 10 per cent as of December 2014, spectrum was assigned at a slower pace.

Governments as well as operators across markets need to ensure adequate availability of spectrum for 4G services, low-cost 4G devices, attractive tariffs and realistic EMF limits for higher 4G penetration. GSMA Intelligence expects that a supportive regulatory framework and a fast-developing 4G device ecosystem will help maintain the growth momentum in 4G adoption. The industry body forecasts that by end-2015, global 4G connections will reach 875 million. And by 2020, 4G is expected to account for more than 30 per cent of global mobile subscriptions, while 4G networks are expected to cover 63 per cent of the global population.